December 2024 Market Performance
December proved to be another volatile month for soft commodities, with both cocoa and coffee markets experiencing significant price swings driven by fundamental and speculative factors.
Cocoa Markets
Price Performance
ICE Cocoa delivered a strong December performance:
- Opening: $4,312/tonne
- High: $4,678/tonne
- Low: $4,198/tonne
- Close: $4,589/tonne
- Monthly return: +6.4%
Volume and Open Interest
- Average daily volume: 48,234 contracts
- Month-end open interest: 312,456 contracts
- Net speculative length increased by 12,340 contracts
Key Drivers
- West African arrivals data — Continued weakness in Ivorian port arrivals
- European grinding — Better-than-expected Q4 preliminary data
- Currency effects — Weaker dollar supportive
Coffee Markets
Arabica Performance
ICE Arabica (KC) continued its upward trajectory:
- Opening: 178.45¢/lb
- High: 189.90¢/lb
- Low: 175.20¢/lb
- Close: 186.75¢/lb
- Monthly return: +4.6%
Robusta Performance
London Robusta showed mixed action:
- Opening: $3,012/tonne
- Close: $3,089/tonne
- Monthly return: +2.6%
Commitment of Traders Analysis
Managed Money Positioning
| Commodity | Net Position | Weekly Change | vs. 52-week Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cocoa | +45,678 | +3,245 | 89th percentile |
| Arabica | +52,123 | +2,890 | 82nd percentile |
| Robusta | +18,456 | +1,234 | 71st percentile |
Elevated speculative length remains a key risk factor for both markets
Looking Ahead to January 2025
Key Events Calendar
- Jan 8: Brazil December export data
- Jan 15: ICE certified stock reports
- Jan 20: European grinding association Q4 finals
- Jan 22: USDA World Markets and Trade report
Trade Grounds Outlook
We maintain our constructive view on both cocoa and coffee, though elevated speculative positioning warrants attention to correction risks.
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